Diálogo Ciudadano covers the 2026 elections in Colombia, Brazil, the United States, Spain (possible early election) and Mexico's electoral preparation ahead of 2027. Each piece prioritizes data, cross-referenced sources, and analysis of digital campaigns over opinion.
The Registraduría's preliminary count, with 99.99 percent of tables in, gave Abelardo De la Espriella 49.66 percent and Iván Cepeda 48.70 percent: about 250,000 votes apart, the narrowest runoff since the ballotage was created. De la Espriella declared himself president-elect; Cepeda called the figure preliminary and said he would wait for the scrutiny, with some 57,000 challenges filed.
In June, Cybernews researchers found an open database with 24 billion records and 8.3 TB, mostly logs from password-stealing malware. The number is striking, but the finer point is elsewhere: how many are duplicates and how many unique people lie behind them is unknown, and the owner turned out to be a security firm that left it exposed through a misconfiguration.
On June 14, 2026, Switzerland decides at the ballot box whether to cap its population at 10 million by 2050. Behind the question lies a figure —9.1 million today— and a concrete threat: the guillotine clause that would tie rejecting free movement to the end of more than 120 bilateral treaties with the EU. Polls show a tie leaning toward No.
Jair Bolsonaro is in prison, sentenced to 27 years for an attempted coup and barred from office until around 2060. And yet his name dominates October's presidential election, because his son Flávio runs as his vehicle. In four months he closed a 23-point gap against Lula to a statistical tie. This is the arithmetic of a candidacy by proxy.
In the 2026 US midterm elections, AI-generated fake videos are no longer a clandestine threat: they are official ads from campaign committees. The case of candidate Talarico, fabricated by the Republican Senate arm, marks the moment the deepfake went from suspicion to declared tool, in a country with no federal law to govern it.
Europe's youngest country goes to the polls this 7 June for the third time in a year and a half. The reason is not that no one wins — Vetëvendosje always wins, with about half the vote — but that the Constitution requires 80 of 120 seats to elect a president and the opposition refuses to cooperate. It is a deadlock by design.
Three weeks separate the first round from the runoff, and the polls do not agree on the margin. AtlasIntel gives De la Espriella almost eight points; other readings put it under three. The outcome rests on two measurable variables: who absorbs the votes of the eliminated candidates, and how many new voters show up. This is the map of the numbers, not the speeches.
The Registraduría's preliminary count gave Abelardo De la Espriella 43.74 percent and Iván Cepeda 40.91 percent, with close to 100 percent of tables reported. Neither cleared half plus one, so the runoff is set for 21 June. Cepeda and President Petro questioned the preliminary count without presenting evidence; registrar Penagos reported a peaceful vote.
Robert Abela's Labour Party won the 30 May snap election with 51.77 percent; Alex Borg's Nationalist Party took 44.68 percent and cut to about 21,700 votes a gap that exceeded 40,000 in 2022. Turnout was 87.4 percent. Borg conceded the same night; Labour celebrates a mark unmatched since independence.
Two days before the presidential first round, the five main pollsters give Iván Cepeda between 36 and 44 per cent of voting intention. The fight for the second slot is between Abelardo De la Espriella and Paloma Valencia. The European Union Election Observation Mission, which already certified the 8 March legislative elections, returns to monitor the count.
The Registraduría opened 253 consular sites and 1,489 polling tables for a process that began in New Zealand on 25 May and closes on Sunday 31 at 4 p.m. local time in each country. The United States holds 454,262 voters; Spain, 307,996; Venezuela, 180,782. Twenty-four hours before close, the Foreign Ministry moved 58 polling stations without public explanation.
The National Statistics Office postponed to 3 and 4 June two series originally scheduled for the eve of the vote. Its director general says he is complying with reflection day; the European Central Bank published the figures on its own and shows a monthly jump of 933 million euros in debt. The opposition denounces opacity; the government invokes the General Elections Act.
Researchers attribute to the pro-Kremlin 'Matryoshka' operation at least 343 fake videos published by early May, several using artificial intelligence. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan defends a pivot toward the European Union; the opposition and Moscow deny it. Analysts also warn that labeling all domestic criticism as 'hybrid warfare' affects freedom of expression.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party heads into the House of Representatives election with near-total control of the media. The opposition denounces coordinated disinformation campaigns online; Facebook already removed accounts for 'coordinated inauthentic behaviour' in past elections. The record of internet shutdowns hangs over the vote.
Robert Abela (Labour Party) seeks a fourth term against Alex Borg (Nationalist Party). EDMO documented AI-manipulated videos and images aimed mostly at the opposition leader. The economy and purchasing power dominate the debate; the rule of law and the Caruana Galizia case have, according to analysts, taken a back seat.
Diálogo Ciudadano tracks the 2026 elections not by who wins, but by the digital conditions under which people vote. Four trackers —electoral risk, digital integrity, ad spending and documented disinformation— turn that invisible layer into comparable, country-by-country data. This piece is the map of how they fit together.
Cross-referencing the world election calendar with the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index produces an uncomfortable portrait: most countries voting in 2026 are not full democracies, and in twelve of them there are verified digital risks —spyware, internet shutdowns, censorship— that shape how people vote. This is the anatomy of global electoral risk.
Deepfakes and synthetic content multiplied across recent elections worldwide, and regulation runs behind. The EU's AI Act now demands AI content be labeled; the US has a patchwork of state laws, some struck down on free-speech grounds; Brazil banned deceptive deepfakes. But the deeper problem is structural: the tools that protected elections were built for a media world that no longer exists.
In a single year, Costa Rica, Peru, Colombia, and Brazil hold presidential elections — alongside Chile, Honduras, and Bolivia just before. Security has overtaken the economy as the top voter concern, the regional pendulum is swinging rightward, and disinformation shadows every race. A guide to the most consequential electoral year Latin America has seen in a generation.
55 national elections across 50 countries and eight world regions —presidential, legislative and general—, ordered by region and date. 30 still to be held.
Costa Rican general elections. One of Latin America's two full democracies per the EIU. DC coverage on digital-spend transparency.
Elections to Barbados' House of Assembly. DC coverage on information integrity in the Caribbean.
Legislative elections and inter-party primaries, prelude to the May presidential vote. 41 million eligible voters.
Peruvian general elections: presidential (first round), Chamber of Deputies and Senate. DC coverage on disinformation and ballot fragmentation.
Elections to the House of Representatives. DC coverage on information integrity in the Caribbean.
Elections to the Bahamian House of Assembly. DC coverage on electoral transparency in the Caribbean.
14 candidates on the ballot, 41 million eligible voters. Cepeda (Pacto Histórico) leads polls. Race for second place between De la Espriella and Valencia within margin of error.
Provisional presidential and legislative elections, the first in years in a country in a security crisis. Runoff expected in December.
Full general cycle (presidency, Congress, governorships). DC coverage focused on WhatsApp + TCU + STF after the June 2025 platform-liability decision.
No federal election in 2026, but the INE preparation cycle begins for the 2027 extraordinary judicial election. DC coverage on AI regulatory framework + INE.
Midterm legislative elections: the whole House and a third of the Senate. DC coverage on generative AI in campaigns, post-GENIUS Act regulation, and Section 230.
A hard-right populist reached the runoff in Portugal's presidential election. DC coverage on disinformation and political advertising under the DSA.
Elections to the Slovenian National Assembly. DC coverage on DSA compliance.
Referendum on judicial reform. DC coverage on disinformation and digital advertising in referendum campaigns.
Snap election called by Mette Frederiksen. The Social Democrats came first. DC coverage on data governance.
Péter Magyar's Tisza party ended Viktor Orbán's 16 years in power. DC coverage on Pegasus use against journalists and EU rule-of-law pressure.
Bulgarian snap parliamentary election. DC coverage on digital political advertising and DSA compliance.
Annita Demetriou's Democratic Rally won a plurality. DC coverage on the EU digital framework.
Snap general election called by Robert Abela. DC coverage on electoral transparency and digital advertising under the DSA.
Slovak national referendum. DC coverage on disinformation and digital advertising.
Estonian presidential election (by parliament). Estonia, a benchmark in digital government and cybersecurity.
Swedish parliamentary elections, a test of populist influence. The country braces for possible cyberattacks on the process. DC coverage on disinformation.
Elections to the Latvian Saeima. Focus on electoral cybersecurity given its border with Russia.
Partial Czech Senate elections. DC coverage on DSA compliance in the information space.
Bulgarian presidential election. DC coverage on political advertising and disinformation.
Possibility under continuous review. If confirmed, coverage on campaign digital spend, AI regulation applied to political advertising, and AESIA's role.
Direct-democracy referendum day, with votes on immigration and civil-service reform. DC coverage on technology regulation.
State Duma elections in an environment of strong state control, including preparations in occupied Ukrainian territories. DC coverage on censorship and surveillance.
Bosnian general elections in a complex institutional system. DC coverage on ethnic disinformation and platforms.
The year's second round of Swiss federal referendums. DC coverage on direct democracy and disinformation.
Phased parliamentary elections under the military junta since the 2021 coup, widely contested. Parliament later cleared the path for the junta leader to become president.
Snap election called by PM Sanae Takaichi, who swept it: the LDP won 316 seats, the highest postwar tally. All 465 lower-house seats were at stake.
Snap elections after parliament was dissolved over the Cambodia border crisis. Backdrop: Pegasus surveillance of activists (GeckoSpy operation).
First elections since the fall of Sheikh Hasina in 2024, with a constitutional referendum on the 'July Charter'. 2,028 candidates for 299 seats. Sharp democratic decline per the EIU.
Parliamentary elections in a one-party state. DC coverage on information control.
Elections after the political crisis and the arrival of an interim government. DC coverage on the role of social media in mobilisation.
Armenian parliamentary elections. Researchers documented a large disinformation campaign attributed to pro-Kremlin actors (the "Matryoshka" operation) with AI-generated videos, amid Pashinyan's pivot toward the EU.
The Iraqi Parliament elected Nizar Amedi (PUK) as president. Amid institutional rebuilding and regional tensions.
Lebanese parliamentary elections in a volatile regional context. DC coverage on digital freedom and surveillance.
Knesset elections, the first since 7 October 2023 and the subsequent wars. DC coverage on surveillance, spyware and press freedom.
Yoweri Museveni, in power since 1986, sought to extend his rule. DC coverage on internet shutdowns and digital surveillance during the campaign.
Presidential election in Djibouti. DC coverage on digital freedom in the Horn of Africa.
Francisco Carvalho's PAICV unseated PM Correia e Silva. One of West Africa's most stable democracies.
Legislative and local elections in Guinea. DC coverage on digital freedom during the transition.
Elections to the House of Peoples' Representatives in a fragile context after internal conflicts, with credibility concerns.
Elections to Algeria's People's National Assembly, with greater powers for the president. DC coverage on digital censorship.
Presidential election. DC coverage on information integrity in Lusophone Africa.
Zambian general elections, with the EU invited as observer. DC coverage on internet shutdowns during the campaign.
Elections to Morocco's House of Representatives. DC coverage on press freedom and digital surveillance.
Legislative, regional and local elections. DC coverage on information integrity.
Cape Verdean presidential election. One of Africa's most stable democracies.
Gambian presidential election. DC coverage on digital freedom in West Africa.
General elections in Guinea-Bissau. DC coverage on institutional stability and the information space.
The country's first national elections, repeatedly postponed. DC coverage on fragile digital infrastructure.
New Zealand parliamentary elections, called by Christopher Luxon. DC coverage on content moderation after Christchurch.
Diálogo Ciudadano's electoral coverage rests on three operating rules that we do not negotiate.
First rule — data before narrative. Each piece must have at least one figure verifiable against a public source with a cut-off date. Polls with named firms registered with the country's electoral authority. Data from the registrar, the national electoral council, or the observer mission. Campaign-spend figures documented in the platforms' Ad Library. We do not publish poll analysis without naming the firm. We do not publish disinformation figures without a source that tracked them with open methodology.
Second rule — we do not predict outcomes. Diálogo Ciudadano reads polls as statistical snapshots with explicit margin of error, not as forecasts. When a piece describes a first place as "secured" or a second as "contested," it does so with each firm's ranges and margins, not with a proprietary aggregate projection. If the data suggests a competitive scenario, that is what we say. We do not complete stories with conclusions the data does not support.
Third rule — the angle is the intersection. Diálogo Ciudadano is not a pure-politics outlet. It is a politics, technology and digital regulation outlet. Electoral coverage prioritizes what moves in the digital layer — TikTok campaigns, paid spend on Meta, generative-AI disinformation, platform digital shields, electoral regulation applied to online space. We cover the rally at the plaza if it delivers a data point unavailable elsewhere. We do not cover it simply because the plaza is full.
The next piece in this series will examine the results of the Colombian first round on May 31 and compare what the five polling firms anticipated with what actually happened. If the difference is significant, the piece will explain why. If the difference is modest, it will examine the performance of the institutional apparatus against the 150 disinformation campaigns the Electoral Observation Mission tracked.