Indicators we verify one by one

↑ 418 AML/OFAC penalties documented across 177 countries and 379 regulators, with more than $3,563 billion in amounts at stake (fines, forfeitures and laundering volumes). A curated registry of verifiable cases, not an exhaustive census.

↑ Corporate bankruptcies hit decade highs: over 717 in the year per S&P, with a 4.25% default rate. Four cases mark the pattern: First Brands (~$9.3 billion liability, $2.3 billion factoring fraud, contagion to UBS and Jefferies), Rite Aid (Chapter 22 ending in total liquidation), Genesis Healthcare (healthcare, Texas forum) and the decade-high default-rate anchor

↑ The risk index (0-100) aggregates five objective factors —procedural stage, enforceability, jurisdictions, live appeal and counterparty— and is declared reproducible and auditable, not a Diálogo Ciudadano prediction. Four litigations calibrate the scale: the YPF/Burford case ($16 billion vacated by the 2nd Circuit), J&J talc (over 90,000 suits, three failed bankruptcies), the Kuntur Wasi ICSID award (collected by Peru, the scale's ceiling) and the KGM/Meta bellwether

↑ Merger control diverges by jurisdiction in 2026: the Trump administration revives negotiated remedies in the U.S. (behavioral remedy in Omnicom/Interpublic); the European Commission keeps a low pace (only one Phase II with remedies in Q1-2026) and reviews its guidelines; the UK CMA shifts to a more deal-friendly approach with its '4Ps' framework after the DMCC Act; Brazil (CADE) speeds reviews and expands digital enforcement; and Mexico eliminated the constitutional autonomy of its authority (formerly COFECE). The Microsoft/Activision case —blocked by the CMA, cleared by the EU— demonstrates the value of a multi-jurisdiction tracker

↑ Ibero-American PEP→company→sanction graph (core: Mapa del Poder, 424 nodes) extended to global 2025-2026 coverage: in the first year of the second Trump administration, OFAC imposed sanctions on over 1,300 individuals and entities. The series covers Venezuela (Cartel de los Soles, Maduro apprehended January 2026), Nicaragua (Ortega-Murillo family network), Paraguay (Cartes and his companies, with later delisting), Guatemala, Brazil (the disputed STF case), Colombia (president Petro on the SDN list), Mexico (Sinaloa/CJNG and formal banking), Honduras (ex-president Hernández, convicted and pardoned), Russia (oligarchs of the EU's 20th package), Zimbabwe (Pattni's gold network), DR Congo, Cambodia (Prince Group/Chen Zhi, senator Kok An), Sudan, Belarus, Ecuador, Myanmar, Haiti and Iran, plus the four list layers (OFAC, EU, UK, UN). The relatives-and-close-associates (RCA) blind spot is the through-line, and the cost of missing it is measured in hundreds of millions (GVA Capital case, $215.99 million)

↑ The IMF's 6th Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable report (April 15, 2026) anchors the tracking. Five cases cover the cycle's stages: Ethiopia and Zambia near completing their deals, Sri Lanka advancing outside the Common Framework, one case's bondholders still pending with a 15% haircut, and global external debt at a record $8.9 trillion

↑ Upstream exposure intelligence densifies: the UFLPA Entity List reaches 144 entities (exposure map), the EUFLR risk database activates (Art. 8, mid-2026), the CSDDD directive sets compliance deadlines (July 26, 2029) and traceability is required in high-risk sectors like lithium, steel and copper at Tier 2-3 supply levels

↑ Tracker's first event: 3 states with both authorities / 10 partial / 14 undesignated, ten months past the Aug 2, 2025 deadline; Hungary and Italy without fundamental-rights authorities

↑ Ecosystem 'not ready' as of Mar-2026 (standards unpublished, insufficient designations) — the deficit behind the Omnibus; product-regime (Annex I) precedence over Annex III clarified; Aug 2, 2026 unmoved while the Omnibus stays unpublished

↑ +1 mirror case: Uribe — 7 years to convict, 8 weeks to reverse, open-ended cassation; 14 years from origin, neither firm sanction nor firm acquittal (6 cases measured)

↑ +1: Peru closes the generative-AI gap in ~3 years (DS 115-2025-PCM), Latin America's fastest binding response; Brazil and Chile keep the gap open

↑ The gap becomes chronic: Congress struck down the CNMC's legal empowerment (Apr 14, 2026, 174-163); designated since Jan-2024 without operating as Coordinator; Commission infringement procedure open against Spain

↑ +1: Canvas/Instructure, the largest known education breach (≈275M records per the attacker), with ransom paid

↑ The 2026 World Cup works as a live stress test: 39 countries under full or partial U.S. travel bans (19 with visa issuance suspended) including four qualified teams; referee Omar Artan denied at Miami, Iraqi forward Aymen Hussein held for hours in Chicago with his phone searched and an accredited photographer denied after 10+ hours; over 120 organizations issued a travel warning and a stadium union negotiated walk-off clauses over ICE deployments

→ Jun-2026 review: Uribe updated — first-instance conviction overturned (Oct 21, 2025) with cassation pending before the Supreme Court (substantiation deadline met Jan 13, 2026); CFK verified unchanged (firm, house arrest); 29 cases covered

↑ July 1, 2026 cliff: the transitional regime expires (ESMA, Apr 17) with only ≈210 of 1,200+ VASPs converted (≈17%) and 10 EU jurisdictions yet to issue a single license; consolidated hubs: Germany (banking), Netherlands (payments), Luxembourg (global brands), Malta (exchanges); USDC/EURC the only top-ten stablecoins with EMT authorization and USDT out of regulated front-ends; in the U.S., GENIUS framework implementation with a regulatory deadline of Jan 18, 2027

↑ 271 million dollars across four settlements approved or with deadlines closed between Dec-2025 and Mar-2026 (AT&T $177M, Kaiser $46M, 23andMe $30M, Yale New Haven $18M); the Snowflake MDL remains active with Ticketmaster (560 million records) in dispute and partial settlements by Neiman Marcus and Advance Auto Parts

→ Jun-2026 review: Brazil updated on two layers (EU adequacy Jan 26, 2026 + platform regime rewritten by the STF); 16 countries covered

→ About half of European OECD countries have a DST announced, proposed or in force (rates from Poland's 1.5% to Hungary/Turkey's 7.5%; Hungary at 0% until Jun-2026); Canada formally repealed its tax on Mar 26, 2026 after Washington's trade pressure; the OECD's Pillar One remains stalled after the U.S. withdrawal from the Inclusive Framework (Jan-2025), leaving the system in unstable equilibrium: unilateral taxes versus tariff threats

↑ 32 electoral processes of 2026 profiled by political regime and digital risk; calendar expanded with the imminent contests that were missing: Switzerland (referendums 14 Jun), New Caledonia (28 Jun), Algeria (2 Jul), Slovakia (referendum 4 Jul), plus Benin, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Zambia, Morocco and Czech Republic

↑ The legal floor arrives Sep 27, 2026 (ECGT across the 27; transposition was due Mar 27); the template case is DWS: €25M from German prosecutors + $19M from the SEC (~$46M with costs, CEO resignation and headquarters raided); the UK's CMA can fine up to 10% of worldwide turnover since Apr 2025; first ruling under Italy's transposition (Decree 30/2026) on May 11, 2026

↑ Next critical deadlines: Jun 23, 2026 closes the high-risk classification methodology consultation; Aug 2, 2026 REMAINS ACTIVE (GPAI transparency and the sanctions regime; and high-risk, unless the AI Omnibus agreed May 7 is published in the Official Journal first); Sep 11, 2026 starts mandatory Cyber Resilience Act reporting; post-Omnibus: Annex III → Dec 2, 2027, Annex I → Aug 2, 2028, Art. 50(2) labeling → Dec 2, 2026

↑ The 2026 shift: licensing for H200/MI325X and equivalents to China moved from presumption of denial to case-by-case (BIS final rule, Jan 15, 2026) with a 50% TPP cap, independent U.S. testing and KYC, in parallel with a 25% Section 232 tariff; the Affiliates Rule (50% ownership rule) is suspended until Nov 10, 2026; ~10 Chinese firms cleared to buy the H200 (75,000 units/customer) but with zero deliveries amid the legal limbo of Beijing's counter-rules; the H100/A100 remain restricted and the OISP outbound-investment program stays intact

→ The EU-US DPF remains in force after surviving its first judicial challenge (Latombe, General Court, Sep 3, 2025), but appeal C-703/25 P is pending before the CJEU —the court that already struck down Safe Harbor and Privacy Shield—, the PCLOB is in legal limbo and FISA 702 runs on a short-term extension; the cross-cutting operational recommendation: keep SCCs as backup; Brazil is the most recent adequacy, adopted Jan 26, 2026 — the first major Latin American market with free data flow from the EU

→ 150+ count re-verified; milestones: Peru only country with a regulated law (Law 31814 + DS 115-2025-PCM), Brazil PL 2338 in the Chamber with entry into force expected in 2026, Chile Bulletin 16.821-19 in first reading

↑ Paradigm shift: the STF declared Art. 19 of the Marco Civil partially unconstitutional (Jun 26, 2025, 8-3) — civil liability for platforms without a court order in certain cases, a proactive monitoring duty and the 'systemic failure' concept; the regime governing since 2014 was rewritten judicially

↑ AdImpact's revised projection (Jun 11): $11.6bn for the 2026 cycle — the most expensive ever, surpassing for the first time in a midterm the prior presidential cycle ($11.2bn in 2024) and the 2022 midterm record ($8.9bn); $4bn already spent by June 1 (+46%); broadcast $5.6bn (48%), CTV $2.7bn (23%, fastest-growing medium), digital $1.6bn; California governor $351M, the costliest ever

↑ +46 vessels in the 20th package (Reg. 2026/506/509/511) to 632; Art. 3q debuts mandatory due diligence on tanker sales; the UK is the largest single-country designator and is preparing a legal basis for military seizures; no new OFAC Russia/Iran vessel designations since January 2025; fleet estimated at over 1,300 ships

↑ The SEC awarded over $60M to 48 whistleblowers in fiscal year 2025 (27,000 tips; $171M actually disbursed per the financial report) after FY2024's $255M; the historic individual record remains ~$279M (2023) and the program's cumulative total exceeds $2bn since 2011; the CFTC aligned its rules with the SEC's and added a 30% presumption for claims under $5M, with an $8M+ batch to five whistleblowers paid in June 2026

→ 0 AI Act penalties issued to date: enforcement of high-risk obligations starts August 2, 2026. Update: the 'AI Act Omnibus' agreement (May 7, 2026) clarifies rules, extends deadlines and introduces rules on AI-generated intimate content (effective Dec 2, 2026). Fines up to €35M or 7% of worldwide turnover

↑ 4 beneficial-ownership transparency milestones documented; the EU requires mandatory UBO registers with a July 10, 2026 deadline, the U.S. CTA is in active enforcement since January 2026 (end of the grace period) and some sectors lower the ownership threshold from 25% to 10%

↑ 13 cases of collapses, sanctions and convictions in the crypto sector across 6 countries; new in 2026: EU ban on Russia's A7A5 stablecoin ($119.7bn processed), flight of the USI-Tech promoter ($150m) and the largest forfeiture in history ($15bn in Prince Group bitcoin)

↑ 103 AI-related harm and rights lawsuits documented; 2026 milestones: the 1.5-billion Bartz v. Anthropic settlement (the largest U.S. copyright settlement), the rejection of the secondary copyright claim in Getty v. Stability AI (UK) and the Supreme Court's refusal to review the Thaler case (an AI cannot be an author)

↑ 9 DMA compliance actions documented against gatekeepers; 2026 development: Meta modified its 'consent or pay' ads model after the non-compliance decision, amid sustained enforcement promised by Commissioner Ribera despite U.S. tariff threats

↑ 7 electoral disinformation campaigns or patterns documented with open methodology in 2026 elections. New: 5,150 election domains cloning media (Reuters/WaPo/Fox) ahead of the US midterms, and only 31 states with deepfake laws (+3 in 2026), with no federal rule

↑ 11 GDPR enforcement country profiles and milestones documented; 2026 developments: Italy (Garante) issues the first European AI-related GDPR fines, and a Luxembourg court annuls a large fine on procedural grounds while upholding the violations. Spain leads by volume with over 900 fines

↑ 8 internet shutdown and blocking episodes documented in Latin America; Q1 2026 development: Cloudflare Radar recorded three separate collapses of Cuba's national grid in one month with direct connectivity impact, amid a global trend UNESCO puts at 300+ shutdowns in 54 countries over two years

↑ 4 operational-resilience milestones documented; 2026 is the first real DORA and NIS2 enforcement cycle, with personal liability for management bodies, extraterritorial scope and reporting deadlines of 72 hours for incidents and 24 hours for ransomware payments

↑ 61 high-value penalties across 18 jurisdictions and 6 continents; covers GDPR, DSA, DMA, antitrust, FTC/COPPA, CCPA, LGPD, PIPA and crypto AML/CFT, with outcomes. New: the Central Bank of Ireland fines Coinbase Europe €21.5M (its first crypto sanction)

↑ 23 spyware and surveillance cases documented across the Ibero-American and Lusophone space; 2026 development: Amnesty International forensically confirms the first use of Predator (Intellexa) in Angola against a journalist, within the 'Intellexa Leaks' published in December 2025

↑ 4 trade-compliance actions on forced labor documented; under UFLPA around 1.7 billion dollars in shipments have been detained since it took effect, with growing focus on lithium batteries, energy storage and advanced electronics

↑ 10 state AI laws or milestones documented in the U.S.; 2026 development: Colorado repealed and replaced its pioneering law with SB 189 (lighter regime, effective Jan 2027) and a new wave of states (CT, WA, OR, MD, VT and more) legislates in a patchwork with liability extending to vendors

↑ 13 elections profiled by digital integrity; 5 with transparent political advertising in an ad library

↓ 12 countries assessed by the Climate Action Tracker: 10 with insufficient or worse climate action against the 1.5°C limit

↑ 19 appealed and reviewed moderation decisions, with their policy, original action and review outcome

↑ 50 public AI contracts across 15 jurisdictions on 5 continents (45 with disclosed amount); amounts in original currency, with their outcome

↑ 29 terms evaluated across 25 countries on five continents

↑ 5 Member States referred to CJEU for insufficient DSC implementation

↑ Only 8 of 13 campaigns had reported in Cuentas Claras by mid-May

↑ DC registry kickoff · ongoing monthly manual sweep

↓ AR -11 · PE -14 · SV -8 · EC -31 · USA -7