High-impact litigation risk index

Assigns a reproducible risk index (0-100) to high-impact corporate and sovereign litigation, from five objective, verifiable factors: procedural stage (0-30), enforceability of the ruling (0-25), number of jurisdictions (0-15), live appeal (0-20) and counterparty strength (0-10). The index is NOT an opinion or prediction by Diálogo Ciudadano about the outcome: it is a factual aggregation of observable variables that the event-driven analyst, the litigation-finance fund and the D&O insurer can audit and recompute. We record verifiable facts and attributed assessments; no investment recommendation. Boundary: 'corrupcion-poder-condena' tracks corruption convictions; this tracker scores the risk of high-value civil/commercial litigation by its procedural state and collectability.

Snapshot · June 13, 2026

high-impact litigations scored

↑ The risk index (0-100) aggregates five objective factors —procedural stage, enforceability, jurisdictions, live appeal and counterparty— and is declared reproducible and auditable, not a Diálogo Ciudadano prediction. Four litigations calibrate the scale: the YPF/Burford case ($16 billion vacated by the 2nd Circuit), J&J talc (over 90,000 suits, three failed bankruptcies), the Kuntur Wasi ICSID award (collected by Peru, the scale's ceiling) and the KGM/Meta bellwether

Evolution

Documented events (4)

May 10, 2026 US confirmed

KGM/Meta: the bellwether setting precedent and scoring as medium risk for its signal value

The test case (bellwether) whose value lies in the precedent it sets. A bellwether litigation is the pilot case whose outcome guides the resolution of thousands of similar grouped cases. The KGM/Meta case functions as such: its outcome will signal how the group's claims are valued. The index assigns it a medium risk (52): the procedural stage is advanced but its effect projects onto still-unresolved litigations, enforceability depends on precedent rather than immediate collection, and the appeal remains live. For the event-driven analyst, the bellwether is a pure catalyst: its information value exceeds its direct monetary value, because it reorders the risk premium of the entire related-case portfolio. The index captures that duality by placing it in the scale's middle zone.

Reuters Legal — bellwether trial sets precedent for grouped claims ↗

February 15, 2026 US confirmed

Johnson & Johnson talc: over 90,000 suits and three failed bankruptcies, an active high-collectability risk

The ongoing mass-litigation case with collectability as the dominant factor. The Johnson & Johnson talc litigation groups over 90,000 suits alleging its talc caused cancer; the company tried three times to resolve the liability via the bankruptcy maneuver known as the 'Texas two-step', and all three were rejected by the courts. The index assigns a high risk (58): the procedural stage is active and consolidated (MDL), the counterparty is a solvent corporation of maximum collectability, and the number of plaintiffs and jurisdictions is enormous, though appeals and procedural maneuvers keep uncertainty over the final amount. For the analyst, the contrast with YPF is instructive: here the risk is high not for the amount but because the counterparty can pay and the procedural escape routes are exhausted.

Reuters — J&J talc bankruptcy rejected for third time ↗ Bloomberg Law — J&J talc MDL status ↗

January 20, 2026 PE confirmed

Kuntur Wasi: the ICSID award collected by Peru, the ceiling of the collectability scale

The case setting the index's upper extreme for its consummated collectability. The International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) award in the Kuntur Wasi case —concerning the Chinchero airport— concluded in Peru's favor, which collected $91.2 million in compensation. The index assigns this case the highest value in the series (88): the award is final (procedural stage closed), enforceability was consummated (Peru already collected), jurisdictions are resolved and there is no live appeal. It is the upper-extreme anchor: it represents the scenario where all risk factors have resolved in favor of collectability. For the analyst, Kuntur Wasi calibrates what an '88' looks like and lets one situate open cases by contrast: the closer a litigation gets to this profile —final award, paying counterparty, no appeal—, the higher its index.

CIADI/ICSID — Kuntur Wasi v. Peru award ↗ Gobierno de Perú — comunicado sobre cobro del laudo Chinchero ↗

March 27, 2026 AR confirmed

YPF/Burford: the 2nd Circuit vacates the $16 billion judgment and reorders a binary litigation risk

The case illustrating a maximally volatile binary risk. On March 27, 2026, the 2nd Circuit Court of Appeals vacated the roughly $16 billion judgment against Argentina over the 2012 expropriation of YPF, remanding key aspects to the lower court. Burford Capital, the litigation's main funder, fell about 45% after the ruling. The risk index assigns this litigation a moderate-low value (34) precisely for its binary nature: the procedural stage moves backward (live appeal, non-final judgment), enforceability against a sovereign is complex, and although several jurisdictions are involved, the outcome hinges on a resolution that can go either way. For the event-driven analyst, the case shows why procedural state outweighs nominal amount: $16 billion 'vacatable' is worth far less in risk than a smaller, already-final and collectable figure.

Reuters — US appeals court vacates $16 billion YPF judgment against Argentina ↗ Financial Times — Burford Capital shares fall after YPF ruling ↗

Methodology

Type: event-log
Construction: DC editorial construction
Cadence: event-driven